Tiger Research: The 2026 monetized stock market, lasting contract Rise
While the stock market has been very innovative, the market value and volume of transactions in encrypted currencies have declined。
This article was written by Tiger Research. Although the encrypted currency market is in a low state, the monetized stock market continues to grow. It is divided into fully mortgaged spot futures and renewable futures, of which the renewal of futures is of the greatest concern and a number of new strategies emerge。
Summary of highlights
- While the stock market has been very innovative, the market value and volume of transactions in encrypted currencies have declined. As the two developed, the monetized stock market grew through the formation of an open contract for the renewal of futures。
- The market is divided into fully mortgaged spot and renewable futures. Revolving futures are notable because they can trade shares that are not available on national exchanges 24 hours a day, and they can leverage。
- When the time period for regular transactions is over, price movements will be the leading indicator of spot opening prices for the next day, which can predict not only the direction of price movements but also the extent of price fluctuations。
- two retail transactions, one of delta neutral transactions, where a premium is earned through spot transactions, and cross-exchange arbitrage using price gaps。
- The same structure applies to businesses such as marketers, regional prophecies, token issues and hedge funds. Although small, there are opportunities for investment and business as institutional investors join。
1. Stock markets are absorbing encrypted currency liquidity
In the first quarter of the year, the total market value of encrypted money fell by 20.4 per cent and the volume of spot transactions on the centralized exchange fell by 39.1 per cent. Bitcoin has been falling since October 2025, when it came to a record high。
THE STOCK MARKET IS MOVING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. THE STANDARD 500 INDEX EASILY EXCEEDED THE ANNUAL TARGET, AND THE KOREA CONSOLIDATED EQUITY INDEX (KOSPI) BENEFITED FROM THE GROWTH OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY, WHICH DOUBLED THIS YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME, THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF ENCRYPTED CURRENCIES FELL SHARPLY, WHILE THE STOCK MARKET IN MOST COUNTRIES WAS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. THE TWO ROADS HAVE NEVER BEEN SO CLEAR。
Bonds split the market and money went to criminals
The monetized stock market is divided into two parts by collateral structure。
The full-mortgage spot transaction is deposited in the real stock at a ratio of 1:1 and the coin is issued. Investors hold shares themselves or their legitimate claims. Details of the issuance vary from platform to platform, but there are always bottom assets。
FUTURES ARE OPERATED DIFFERENTLY. IT DOES NOT HOLD ANY ACTUAL SHARES. DEALERS PAY A BOND AND OPEN A CONTRACT TO TRACK THE PRICE, SO THERE IS NO CLAIMABLE ASSET. BONDS ARE USUALLY PAID IN STABLE CURRENCY, AND MORE AND MORE PLATFORMS NOW ACCEPT OTHER ASSETS, SUCH AS THE ETH。
Permanent contracts are striking because they preserve the advantages of spot transactions, provide round-the-clock trading of stocks that cannot be traded on local exchanges and provide greater leverage. Some off-the-shelf products on Kraken xStocks offer up to three times the bond, while the leverage of permanent contracts is 20 times higher, depending on the product. As there is no need to host the targeted assets and the prices are tracked only through predictive data sources, the market is fast and the range of tradable stock codes is wide。
It is still small compared to traditional markets. The United States stock market is on average about $1.1 trillion a day. The stock options were not settled (i.e., the total of current valid contracts) at $2.25 billion. Direct comparison is difficult because of the different measures, but it is clear that the market is still in its early stages。
THE DIRECTION IS CLEAR. UNSETTLED CONTRACTS (OI) ARE GROWING QUARTERLY AND REGULATORS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IT AS A MARKET. THE UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (SEC) HAS CLASSIFIED SUCH CONTRACTS AS AN INNOVATIVE FINANCIAL PRODUCT, AND THE UNITED STATES COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION (CFTC) IS PUBLICLY REVIEWING ITS INSTITUTIONALIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES. THE CONTRACT WAS INITIALLY OUTSIDE THE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, BUT IS NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE REGULATORY SYSTEM。
24-hour and real markets
Tiger Research tracked the change and provided a tool to compare the prices of Korean equities in the overseas sustainable contract market in real time with the spot prices of the Korea Exchange (KRX). The tool consolidates the prices of the sustainable contract exchange supporting shares such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hercules and modern automobiles, using the trade-weighted average method, and shows them in parallel to the domestic spot price of each stock。
The current data show three patterns。
3.1. The movement of overnight offenders predicts the next session
Korea Stock Market Night Break. The United States stock market fluctuated, with the British Weida report showing exchange rate fluctuations, but the Korean stock market did not resume trading until the following morning. The outlaws trade at night。
That raises a problem. What are the prices cited by criminals after the closure of spot transactions
The answer is that they do not follow established market prices. During the time of the transaction, the offender draws a spot price from institutional data. When the transaction is concluded, the offender's own transaction directly determines the price. Instead of copying closed spot market prices, they found new prices based on overnight news and macroeconomic variables。
THE DATA CONFIRM THIS. ON THE DAY WHEN THE STOCK PRICE IS RAISED, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AND SK HERCULES ARE AT A PROBABILITY OF OPENING AN INCREASE OF 82 PER CENT AND 95 PER CENT ON THE NEXT TRADING DAY, RESPECTIVELY. WHEN STOCK PRICES FALL AFTER CLOSING, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AND SK HERCULES ARE EXPECTED TO OPEN AT 96 PER CENT AND 78 PER CENT ON THE NEXT TRADING DAY, RESPECTIVELY. THE TREND IS APPROXIMATELY 85 PER CENT CONSISTENT WITH A RELATED COEFFICIENT OF 0.85 TO 0.89。
THE INCREASE IS ALSO IN LINE WITH STOCK PRICE TRENDS. THE OVERNIGHT STOCK PRICE ROSE BY 3% AND THE OPENING PRICE ROSE BY ABOUT 3%. THE REGRESSION FACTOR BETWEEN THE INCREASE IN THREE STARS ' ELECTRONIC SHARE PRICE AND THE ACTUAL OPENING GAP IS 0.93 AND SK HERCULES 1.00, WHICH CAN ALMOST PREDICT THE INCREASE。
THE WEEKENDS ARE EVEN SHARPER. FROM THE CLOSING ON FRIDAY TO THE OPENING ON MONDAY, THE PROJECTED STOCK PRICE TREND OF THE THREE STAR ELECTRONS REACHED 93 PER CENT, COMPARED WITH THE ACTUAL OPENING PRICE ON MONDAY, AND THAT OF THE SK HERCULES 87 PER CENT, AS THE PROJECTED STOCK PRICE TREND ABSORBED TWO DAYS OF GLOBAL MARKET VOLATILITY。
By observing the overnight price of futures, it is possible to learn in advance about the early start-up price。
3.2. Delta neutral trade in spot premiums
There is no expiry date for the permanent contract. In order to prevent prices from moving too far from the reference price, multiple and empty exchange costs are periodically referred to as financial rates。
For example, when the price is higher than the reference price, the profit margin requires a premium to be paid to the deficit. The higher the premium, the higher the premium is paid. When a party earns more than the reference price, the corresponding costs are incurred. In order to avoid these costs, traders will adjust their strategies and the final price will fall near the reference price。
THE DATA SHOW THAT THE PRICE OF THE KOREAN STOCK FUTURES EXCHANGE IS HIGHER THAN THE SPOT PRICE, WITH AN AVERAGE DAILY PREMIUM OF 0.15 PER CENT FOR TRISTAR ELECTRONICS AND 0.23 PER CENT FOR SK HERCULES. THE SALE OF FUTURES MEANS THAT THIS PORTION OF THE PREMIUM IS AVAILABLE FOR FUNDING IN EACH TRANSACTION CYCLE。
The strategy is to buy KRX cash in the day and sell the same amount of option contracts. If equities rise, spot gains increase, and options contracts lose; if equities fall, the contrary. The two offset each other, so the end result was close to zero regardless of stock movements. In return, funds come from options contracts sold. The position is profited only from the option fee and is not subject to a bet. This way of eliminating the risk in the direction is the neutral sex trade of delta。
The premium will not last long. On average, the cash gap narrows in about 40 minutes. It applies to the high volatility phase of the premium expansion, but requires continuous monitoring。
3.3. arbitrage using cross-exchange price gaps
At the same time, there are differences in the permanent contract prices of different exchanges, even for the same stock. Data from June 2026 show that the price of the Samsung electronic permanent contract in Franz-An is, on average, 0.93 per cent higher than Hyperliquid. The contract price of SK Hercules was 1.03 per cent higher, with a maximum of 2.3 per cent。
Holdings cannot be transferred between different exchanges. Dealers need to establish reverse positions at both exchanges. Flows on higher-priced exchanges, and more on lower-priced exchanges, offset by directional gains and losses. As the two prices converge, the initial price differential translates into profit. In higher-priced exchanges, empty positions also provide access to finance, thereby increasing returns。
Back-to-back exchanges tend to maintain higher prices, as arbitrage inflows are lower. As more exchanges are launched, the price gap will recur at an early stage. At night and weekends, spot transactions are closed and exchanges set their own prices, and the price gap will widen further。
4. Market changes and emerging opportunities
A major difficulty for this market lies in its fragmentation, which is both a risk and an opportunity. Liquidity is divided by the spread of the same currency on existing South Korean exchanges and platforms such as Hyperliquid, Currency and Lighter. Price differences between trading platforms make it difficult to determine which currency is the real transaction, and price differences provide room for confusion and manipulation. In cases of insufficient liquidity, leverage may lead to a chain of liquidations. This is both an opportunity and a risk。
The openings listed above are for retail purposes. Similar structures provide opportunities for other commercial uses。
- Business:The difference in the transaction price of the same stock on different exchanges ranges from 0.15 to 0.75 per cent and increases further at night. Price differentials continue to be large in arbitrage-poor early-roll markets. Market demand is expected to continue to grow as a result of insufficient liquidity and decentralized liquidity managed by multiple exchanges。
- Regional Prophets:Criminals find prices during the closure of spot transactions, the accuracy of which depends on the predictor. At present, prognosis machines that provide accurate prices for Asian time zone assets such as Korea, Japan and Taiwan are still in the development stage。
- Currencyization issues:KOREAN COMPANIES CURRENTLY ON THE MARKET ARE LIMITED TO SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, SK HERCULES AND MODERN CARS. MARKETS NEED AN INTERMEDIARY TO MARKET AND MANAGE THE KOSPI 200 INDEX COMPONENT AND MAJOR ASIAN COMPANIES。
- Base hedge funds:Investors convert an hourly premium above spot prices into money. Funds that specialize in collecting base and capital gaps across exchanges are revolving faster than traditional base-side transactions, although markets are still too small to be fully absorbed。
The size of the illegal trading market is smaller than that of traditional markets, but its importance cannot be ignored. It was the first to discover prices, trading around the clock, and is moving rapidly towards institutionalization. There are enormous opportunities for investment and business。
