Water is the real exit: when encrypted VC is Agent's network effect Response

Original title: "The discharge is the real exit: when encrypted VC card position Agent Network Effect"
Source: Master Shaoshan

AI is the opportunity for Nerd, Agent is the opportunity for Money

Risk investments, A16Z and MegaFund have been telling us stories about cycles and exits, but Solo GP seems to be more like the rhythm of signals and structures, and you have to find the true pattern that they didn't say。

In 2021, a16z returned $12.5B proceeds to LPs, more than the sum of the previous 10 years, while 2021 was also the beginning of the United States VC industry disaster, leaving behind solid DPIs, which were only floating。

IN OTHER WORDS, IN 2021, THE GOLDEN PERIOD OF EXIT, THE LP CAN ACTUALLY GET THE REAL SILVER AND SILVER, BUT IF LP REINVESTS, IT HAS TO GO THROUGH THE PAIN THAT CONTINUES TO THIS DAY。

Photo: Water is the real exit
Image by @jasonlk @PeterJ Walker

All this goes against the narrative, and the shock of the encrypted market coincides with the idea of the cosmos in 2022 that web 3 boiled oil and even forced it to kill the cattle market until early 2025, when Binance ended with the "honey money" farce。

NOW, MOST OF THE VCS ARE IN A SILENT MODEEconomies of scaleThe heavy capital model that has been dragged into the calculus, the data, has been slow to return to the capitalNetwork effectsThere's no way to talk about it on the chain, and it's hard to work on the institutionalization and SaaS channels。

BUT EVERY ROUND OF INTEREST-RATE HIKES AND INTEREST-RATE CYCLES, THE WATER THAT GOES OUT, CREATES DIFFERENT VC MODELS, WE INVENT RISK-BASED VALUATION LOGIC OVER AND OVER AGAIN, AND THE RELATIVE FREEDOM OF THE ENCRYPTED MARKET WILL ALLOW THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED IN THE MARKET TO DIG UP THE MOST PROFITABLE SIGNAL MECHANISMS。

WHEN VC NO LONGER TAKES RISKS

"Each passion begins with the impact of external things on the sensory organs, making the animal spirit move through the nerve."

If there is any impression, in March and April 2021, Roblox and Coinbase chose Direct Listing to be listed, as distinct from conventional IPO, directly on the market only for old stock, without the need for a vendor, and without locking down for a fixed period。

INTERESTINGLY, BOTH OF THESE INVESTMENTS WERE A16Z, AND IN JUNE 2021, A16Z RAISED $2.2 BILLION FOR THE THIRD ENCRYPTION FUND, AND IN JANUARY 2022, A16Z RAISED $9 BILLION IN NEW FUNDS。

So what's the price

The price of Coinbase's stock fell 90 per cent at a high point in 2023, and it is very clear that A16Z's role in the US stock, and the encryption of VC, is no different, but the problem is that A16Z can still raise $7.2 billion in 2024 and $15.1 billion in 2026。

Even in May 2026, its fifth encryption fund raised more than $2.2 billion, and its encryption fund history was close to $10 billion。

The market gives a choiceEither become the LPs of A16Z, wait for the amazing DPI of the moment when the water is released, or become the price of A16Z, become the source of the amazing DPI。

BUT THE PROBLEM IS THAT A16Z IS NOT SENSITIVE TO MARKET SIGNALS, IN OTHER WORDS, THE VC KINGS OF EVERY CYCLE FACE A CURSE OF SCALE, TOO BIG TO HAVE ENOUGH INCENTIVE TO DISCOVER SUPER-EARLY PARADIGMS, ESPECIALLY REVOLUTIONS, RATHER THAN IMPROVED MECHANISMS。

1. Arthur Rock, the father of the modern wind thrower, is the top of the channel, the fairy and the Intel open the wind cast in Silicon Valley

2. KP AND REDWOOD HAVE FORMALLY INTRODUCED AN INSTITUTIONALIZATION MODEL, BUT ARE LEADING THE PPC, MOBILE INTERNET

3. YC TO TRANSFORM WIND INTO A PROBABILITY UNDER A LARGE NUMBER OF MECHANISMS FOR THE MASS MANUFACTURE OF SUBMASSIVE UNICORNS UNDER THE ALUMINUM

4. Sun Journey, with soft silver through the aristocratic myths, turned the wind into a super-large, near-Pongue game

Thus, when old giants sink into the glory of the past, new and emerging ambitions will be able to prove their own unique vision through institutional innovation, thus obtaining cheap money and opening their own new era of adventure。

PHOTO ILLUSTRATING CHANGES IN VC CYCLES
source: @zuoyeweb3

Even the reputation itself can be bought back, and the founder of Paradigm, Matt Huaang, dropped a byte beat, and although byte cannot be listed, Paradigm chose to jump in encryption, the latest news, and they have turned to AI and robots。

LET'S FIX THE ANSWER, IF YOU CAN'T BECOME A16Z'S LP, AND YOU DON'T WANT TO BE THE PRICE OF BEING TRAMPLED, THEN YOU'RE GOING TO FIND NEW SIGNALS THAT AREN'T MAGNIFIED AND YOU'RE GOING TO USE NEW MECHANISMS TO KILL OLDER GENERATIONS。

In 2021, the A16Z was not "permitted" to participate in Anthropic financing, but was the early bet of more individual investors, such as Skype, co-founder of Jaan Tallinn, before Google, CEO of CEO, and FTX's SBF, which entered in 2022, giving us another idea of Cripro X AI, which we have never had。

Photo illustrating: The race has just begun
source: @zuoyeweb3

A16Z doesn't need to take the risk, SBF takes the money from the family and "effectively good A." If you want to find the most reasonable starting point for Solo GP, Claude's history is the most typical。

Unlike the individual angels, the whole VC, Agent era, where Solo GP operates entirely in self-research, we can easily understand, but it's precisely when humans do it first, unlike the YC wide-spray network model, that Solo GP still needs to invest in every project in depth, and every one is important for DPI。

A16Z has become an indicator of the market itself, new technological trends have emerged, and updated participant ideas have managed to be a little bit earlier than A16Z, and outside of AI's big model, they're after Agent。

There is a dangerous leap in this: economies of scale cannot exist in an AI big model, server costs increase for every additional human user, and cannot be as low as software, i.e. network effects are not on schedule in Agent, and calls between Agent are ideal。

Unhuman network effects

"The complete theory of the 1784 Watts Rotating Steamer was elaborated by the French Cano."

AI is a black box, Scaling Law is observed at 100 degrees by the King of Adi, and Transformer does not require much more mathematics than graduate school, but it is not clear why it is better than graduate school mathematics。

AI is an opportunity for Nerd, and you just have to give the money to the front-line group, and then wait for the miracles to happen。

However, the large model itself is difficult to recover costs and re-emphasizes that the reversal of the scale effect, even when moving from training to reasoning and from dialogue to task, cannot prevent the process。

The only way out of AI's big model is to become a flow centre like AWS, CloudFlare, and if production side costs cannot be reduced, consumption side must grow indefinitely。

Agent is a money opportunity, and it must be made the main consumer, and the main consumer is the infinite X consumption, which is at the root of what Agent calls each other into the mainstream of the topic。

But to a considerable extent, Agent and Bot are hard to tell each other, and they don't know what Agent is, and it seems Bot already has。

Photo by Bot, not Agent
Source: @Claudflare

If Agent is to be defined, the "assessing smart bodies" in enhanced learning are the origin of the current technology wave, and in DeepMind's thinking, the success of self-evaluation training for smarts is key to the next smart upgrade。

This is very different from Claude's division of roles from Coding, and Agent from a programming point of view is actually a role map for human programmers, and when we say Agentic Coding, Agent from Alpha Zero is out of line。

Photo by Agent High Value View
source: @zuoyeweb3

It's only from this perspective that Agent's successor, Claude, who hit SaaS, can stand up and continue with the manpower outsourcing mechanism:

1. Moving towards a high-value scenario with programmers followed by accountants and analysts

2. To fewer full-time staff, outsourcing followed by multiple Agent calls。

But there's one problem that's still going on, that Agent doesn't show human social relations, that real business relationships don't use Agent to get smooth, and that humans still like to deal with people。

We did create more Agent scenes that worked well in "internal" coordination, such as large plant layoffs for GPUs。

Photo illustrating: High-value scenes without people
source: @truupio

However, in the context of “external” collaboration, it is important to note that it has not been confirmed on schedule that in May 2026 employment in the United States grew strongly, and non-farm employment grew by 172,000 people, mainly in the blue-collar areas of leisure food, health care and so forth, while the financial sector declined by 22 million。

Human society's fear of Agent is real, but it is seriously overestimated。

Of course, just as the Sahara needs no shoes, it can be a signal to continue to enhance model intelligence, to continue to increase Agent capabilities, and to invest in Robotics。

In other words, Agent economics is only theoretically established, and the infinite growth of the consumer side is not real, so how can it continue to be a bet that Agent can call each other and produce a cyber effect

Encrypted card slot Age

" Evolution does not always lead to increased complexity, and evolution does not always lead to an upward trend. "

Summarize what we know, early warning for the unknown danger。

Risk investments do not represent effective discovery of technological signals, which have become a game for a few brave people

Agent was forced to be manufactured in large quantities with the hope of reducing the cost of large model production, but there was no automatic call relationship。

These two seemingly contradictory linguistic systems, which contain clever coordination -- looking for a signal mechanism to stimulate Agent's call。

The simple issuance of Agent assets, or the meaningless transformation of the DeFi protocol into Agent, has a few people on the chain, Bot more, and superseding smart contracts can only increase technological risk, which is not easy。

In practice, human firstness will not be replaced by Agent, because the role map is based on business relationships, Kwok doesn't buy 4090, China and the United States don't share the disk, and the technological boundaries are narrower than we thought。

Photo by Agent Economic Card
source: @zuoyeweb3

Exa, target AgentReal time + quality dataThe demand, one clean, one call, is real economies of scale, but it's hard to trigger a call between Claude and Codex。

Catena meets the Agent compliance financial requirements between the B-ends and even applies for OCC license for B2B compliance, which isSpecialized Web EffectsHowever, it is difficult to reduce the cost of use at scale。

AND THE STABILIZATION CURRENCY REPRESENTS ALL KINDS OF PAYMENT AGREEMENTS THAT WANT TO CUT THE C-END ENTRANCE AND CLEAR THE EXPORT DEMANDLight agreements reduce usage costs and micropayments reduce collaboration costsI don't know。

But it's not enough. In order to reach the final A2A day-to-day communication, it is necessary to make human beings willing to give their souls, like TrueNorth:

1. The use of Agent to facilitate transactions

2. Engaging Agent learners in transactions

3. Leave Agent to dominate the chain。

The policy and legal limitations of Claude ' s access to IBKR can only be some kind of COPilot, TrueNorth using Hyperliquid are not difficult。

But it's still far away, at least further away from VC's imagination。

Picture description: Payment + transaction > proceeds
source: @zuoyeweb3

In an attempt at Agent+ finance, the "principal payment, the second-offer" is the absolute mainstream structure。

The payments are very certain that PayPal and Stripe's market shares will be stabilized, and stabilization currencies will be stabilized by Agent。

The promise of the trade, from Simmons to Jane Street, and the illusion of the unending grace of Liang, triggered VC infinity。

But it's not the same thing that we imagined Agent to take over the deal and pay。

Quantified is the creation of "calculated hegemonics", which remain relative to human speed, and the creation of a "channel advantage" in transactions, which remains a preferential rate relative to banks。

And the divide, VC, is going to make one thing that people are willing to be replaced by Agent, and A16Z can't do anything about it, and money-smuggling is not going to make the new society Clubhouse and Towns Protocol succeed, so that the more complex financial Agent scene will just lie down。

If the success of DeFi is taken into account, Agent will be able to access funding, low-frequency, small-scale validation, and thus high-frequency, large-scale daily use。

Imagine that if all the roads were FSD Tesla Robotaxi, it would be safer than humans/AI to mix, but in order to make it happen, humans would be needed as a test object:

1. THE USE OF AI AUXILIARY DRIVING BY A FEW TO ESTABLISH EQUAL RIGHTS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR HUMAN DRIVERS

REDUCE CASUALTY RATES AND ESTABLISH COMPENSATION MECHANISMS FOR MINORITY USE OF AI AUXILIARY DRIVING。

In other words, creating the Agent touch-money mechanism would make it easier to transform users than Agent to make money. Only when Agent gathers enough money experience, he can keep humans from thinking, but just click to confirm。

Only the active participation of Agent in the market can improve its efficiency and security, it being understoodAgent's process of seeking returns is the process of increasing market efficiency, step by step, C++ is written by C++, optimised by Agent。

The deal is the end of Agent, but before that, you have to go through a long elliptical runway。

In this high-value scenario of finance, the block chain is an open financial test site, and the stabilization currency is the Agent certificate of the process of optimizing the market, which is not about size and resources, but about the establishment and expansion of mechanisms。

Concluding remarks

"Where there is no cycle, and there is no cycle, there will be no reward for our time, and there will always be a new generation to prevail over the old."

VC is becoming smaller and more personal, Solo GP, and OPC, and solo GP investment has not yet been observed as mainstream, and we don't know what paradigm will become mainstream in the uncertain tide of technology。

"Software devours the world" and after the Internet bubble in early 2000, it's now a new era of "Agent devours software" with a long-term dividend of over 20 years。

It is also true that Agent itself is a tool for development and an indicator of productivity evolution, but that no new software has been developed by Agent to become a universal application. After SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, the base model card ends。

In the case of a new round of long-term dividends, new fund-raisers, such as Dragonfly, ParaFi, Haun and Paradigm, and a16z, will continue to expand, or will run out of market-specific track funds, such as 5 cc, with new deployments。

Even the DeFi industry as a whole will experience a new paradigm update, in which innovations in the financial system have continued to change over the past two convulsions, and this time Agent and the Stabilisation Currency have become the new starting point for a two-dollar revolution。

Encryption's small, the world's big

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