DOUBLE-BLAST WEEK: FROM IRAN TO 1 BILLION USDT, WHO'S PLAYING BACK
Encryption Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of encrypted money is $2.43 trillionBTC58.8 per cent, or $14.3 trillion. The market value of the stable currency was $31.53 billion, an increase of 0.79 per cent in the last 7 days, of whichUSDTThis represents 58.33 per cent。
CoinMarketCapMost of the projects in the first 200 fell slightly, including:BTCOn the 7th day, the increase was 1.21%ETHOn the 7th day, the increase was 1.35%SOL7 DAILY INCREASES OF 0.66 PER CENT, PI 7 46.29 PER CENT AND HYPE 7 22.04 PER CENT。
This week, AmericaBitcoinNET INFLOWS OF SPOT ETF: $762.5 MILLION; UNITED STATESEtherwoodNET SPOT ETF INFLOWS: $117.4 MILLION。
Market projections(16 March-22 March):
THE CURRENT RSI INDEX IS 56.73 (NEUTRAL, HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK), THE FEAR OF GREED INDEX IS 14 (EXTREME FEAR) AND THE MOUNTAIN SEASON INDEX IS 37 (NEUTRAL, LOWER THAN LAST WEEK)。
BTC: $68,000 - 73,000 (FOCUSING ON FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE POINTS AT 2 A.M. ON MARCH 19TH)
ETH: $1,980-2,200 (RESISTENCE OF $1,980)
SOL: $90-135 (MACRO AND BASIC ORIENTATION)
THE BTC, AS THE INSTITUTION WITH THE HIGHEST ASSETS, IS THE MOST SENSITIVE TO THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL RESERVE POINT ARRAY. NEXT WEEK'S FLUCTUATIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY A RE-PRICING OF “INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS”. THE CHAIN DATA SHOW THAT AN AREA OF $68,000-69,000 ACCUMULATES A LARGE AMOUNT OF LIQUIDATION LIQUIDITY; IF BROKEN, IT WILL ACCELERATE THE FALL TO $65,000。
ETH RECENTLY HAD A CAUTIOUS INSTITUTIONAL MOOD. EVEN WITH GOOD MACRO-ECONOMICS, THE INCREASE MAY BE LESS THAN THAT OF THE BTC (AS EVIDENCED BY THE CONTINUED WEAKNESS OF THE ETH/BTC EXCHANGE RATE). US$1,776 IS THE CORE LEVERAGE INTENSIVE AREA SINCE THE END OF 2025 AND THE LAST LINE OF DEFENCE. ONCE EFFECTIVELY, THE TECHNOLOGY PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A MEDIUM-TERM DECLINE。
THE HIGH LEVEL OF INNOVATION IN DATA ON THE SOL CHAIN INDICATES THAT REAL FUNDING IS ONGOING. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO FACE MACRO-SHOCKS WITH A STRONGER FALL-OFF BUFFER THAN A PURE MINT. ONCE THE MACRO TURNS TO DOVES, SOL USUALLY REBOUNDS MORE THAN ETH AND BTC AND IS SUITABLE FOR RIGHT-HAND PURSUIT OFFENSIVE CONFIGURATIONS。
I understand now
Looking back at the big event of the week
- The geopolitics subdued and the encryption market rebounded
ON MONDAY, 9 MARCH, AS THE SITUATION IN IRAN SUBSIDED IN THE SHORT TERM, MARKET RISKS REBOUNDED AND THE ENCRYPTED CURRENCY MARKET REBOUNDED STRONGLY. BITCOIN (BTC) HAD A BREAKTHROUGH OF $71,000, INCREASING BY MORE THAN 5 PER CENT WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS INCREASE RESULTED IN A LARGE NUMBER OF EMPTY SILOS, WITH OVER $300 MILLION IN NET CONTRACTS AND 8.13 MILLION PEOPLE。
- Market sentiment and leverage return
With price increases, large derivative trading platforms are growing rapidly in the size of open contracts, indicating that leverage is returning to the market, which also bodes well for greater volatility in future markets. However, despite the rebound, the total market value of the current encrypted market is still about 43 per cent lower than last year ' s high, and the whole is still in the recovery cycle。
- Central bank interest rate resolution week is coming, and the market is facing a macro test
Seven major central banks, including the Fed, will publish interest rate resolutions next week (18-19 March). Since the recent surge in oil prices as a result of the conflict had raised renewed concerns about inflation in the market, traders were adjusting their interest-rate expectations. If the central bank sends a hawk signal, it may trigger sharp fluctuations in risk assets such as bitcoin。
- Tether Treasury found a billion USDT to inject liquidity into the market
According to Whale Alert, Tether Treasury made 1 billion USDTs (approximately $1 billion) this week. Such large-scale issuances of stable currencies are often seen as a sign of a rise, signalling that new funds will enter the encrypted ecosystem and may drive trade volumes and price movements on major exchanges。
- USDT had a major chain error that triggered the DeFi risk discussion
One major chain error involving USDT US$ 5.4 million triggered a debate: the money was traded for 324 AAVEs due to extreme slide points. Aave DAO subsequently announced a refund of approximately $600,000. The incident raised widespread community concern about the risks of implementing DeFi transactions and the issue of slip points。
- Hong Kong's stabilization license is on the way to compliance
HONG KONG IS EXPECTED TO ISSUE ITS FIRST ISSUER LICENSE IN MARCH. ACCORDING TO THE SOURCE, HSBC, SCUM AND LOCAL VIRTUAL ASSET TRADING PLATFORM OSL ARE EXPECTED TO OBTAIN THE FIRST LICENSE PLATES. THIS REPRESENTS AN ACCELERATION OF THE INDUSTRY ' S REGULARIZATION PROCESS AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THE APPLICATION OF THE HONG KONG DOLLAR-LINKED STABILIZATION CURRENCY FROM THE ENCRYPTION SCENE TO AREAS SUCH AS CROSS-BORDER PAYMENTS。
- A NET INFLOW OF ETF IN THE TAIFENG HAS MADE THE PLEDGE A NEW FOCUS
This week, Ishares Staked Etheneum Trust (ETHB) of BlackRock gained market attention with a net inflow of about $57 million. These ETF products provide not only spot openings, but also a pledge incentive allocation of 70-95 per cent, providing investors with new revenue channels。
- Last month, the Solana chain stabilized currency transactions to record high levels
Despite the recent underperformance of SOL token prices (a cumulative decline of about 45 per cent over 30 days), the basics of the chain remain strong. The monthly turnover of the stable currency on the Solana chain reached about US$ 650 billion, a record high, indicating a steady increase in real financial activity on the chain。
- Avalanche launched the pledge ETF, and there was a rise in institutional interest
Grayscale launched the new Avalanche Trust GAVA, which provides institutional investors with compliance channels for participating in and receiving proceeds from AVAX pledges. The introduction of this financial product has led directly to market discussion and attention to AVAX。
- PayPay is on the market, and the shareholders behind Binance Japan are being watched
PayPay, Japan ' s largest cashless payer, the main shareholder of Binance Japan, was listed in NASDAQ this week, with the first day ' s stock price rising by 13.5 per cent over the issue price. This has highlighted the deep binding of traditional payment giants with encryption exchanges and reflects the interest of capital markets in Web3-related businesses。
Macroeconomics
- ON 11 MARCH, THE UNITED STATES DID NOT QUARTERLY ADJUST THE CPI ANNUAL RATE FOR FEBRUARY 2.4 PER CENT, EXPECTED 2.4 PER CENT, PRIOR VALUE 2.40 PER CENT. COMPATIBLE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS AND CONSISTENT WITH LAST MONTH ' S DATA
- (a) On 12 March, the United States of America, until the beginning of the week of 7 March, requested unemployment benefits for 213,000 people, expected to be 215,000 people, with the previous value revised from 213,000 to 214,000 people
- ON 13 MARCH, THE JANUARY CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RATE IN THE UNITED STATES WENT FURTHER UP TO 3.1 PER CENT PER ANNUM, THE HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2024 AND MEETING MARKET EXPECTATIONS
- ON MARCH 13, ACCORDING TO CME “FRESTRIAL RESERVE WATCH”, THE PROBABILITY OF THE FED MAINTAINING INTEREST RATES IN MARCH WAS 99.6 PER CENT, AND THE PROBABILITY OF AN INCREASE OF 25 BASIS POINTS WAS 0.4 PER CENT. THE FED HAS A PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING INTEREST RATES CONSTANT TO APRIL OF 93.2 PER CENT, WITH A CUMULATIVE DECLINE IN INTEREST RATES OF 6.4 PER CENT FOR 25 BASIS POINTS AND A CUMULATIVE INCREASE OF 0.4 PER CENT FOR 25 BASIS POINTS。
ETF
According to statistics, between 9 March and 13 MarchUS BITCOIN NET ETFEnter: $762.8 MILLION; AS AT 13 MARCH, A TOTAL OF $25,889 MILLION HAD BEEN EXPORTED FROM THE GBT, CURRENTLY HOLDING $11.1 BILLION, AND IBIT (BELAID) CURRENTLY HOLDING $55,509 MILLION. THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF THE AVAILABLE BITCOIN ETF IN THE UNITED STATES WAS $94,584 MILLION。
U.S. ETHERPORT NET ETFEnter: $117.4 million。
Seeing the future
Industry meetings
- The official opening of Solana Shanghai Builder State will take place on 20 March. This is a technology exchange and incubator for block chains developed jointly by Solana and the Ali Centre of the Shanghai Rainbow Bridge
- Digital Assembly Summit 2026 will be held in New York, United States, from 24 to 26 March 2026
- EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from 30 March to 2 April 2026. The EthCC is one of the largest and oldest annual Ethers in Europe, focusing on technology and community development
- The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival will be held in Hong Kong, China, from 20 to 23 April 2026
- Token 2049 Dubai 2026 will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from 29 to 30 April 2026。
Project progress
- Noble will migrate from the Cosmos ecology to an independent EVM L1 network on March 18th。
Significant events
- ON 18 MARCH, AT 2.30 P.M., THE UNITED STATES WILL PUBLISH ITS STOCK OF EIA CRUDE OIL (TENS OF BARRELS) UNTIL THE WEEK OF 13 MARCH
- On 19 March, at 0200, the United States will publish the Federal Reserve interest rate decision until 18 March (ceiling)
- On 19 March, at 2000 hours, the United Kingdom will announce the Central Bank ' s interest rate decision until 19 March
- On 19 March, at 2030, the United States will announce the number of people (in thousands) who will receive unemployment benefits until the beginning of the week of 14 March
- On 19 March 21.15, the Eurozone will announce the ECB Deposit Mechanism interest rate until 19 March。
Currency Unlock
- Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 9,265,000 tokens on 16 March, valued at approximately $9.26 million, or 1.78 per cent of circulation
- ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 177 million tokens on 17 March, valued at approximately $3.29 million, or 2.97 per cent of circulation
- Lombard (BARD) will unlock 30 million tokens on 18 March, valued at approximately $32.28 million, or 11.09 per cent of circulation
- YZY (YZY) WILL UNLOCK 2.08 MILLION TOKENS ON 19 MARCH, VALUED AT APPROXIMATELY $6.76 MILLION, OR 4.9 PER CENT OF CIRCULATION
- Layer Zero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on 20 March, valued at approximately $5.24 million, or 5.64 per cent of circulation
- KAITO (KATO) WILL UNLOCK 1.75 MILLION TOKENS ON 20 MARCH, VALUED AT APPROXIMATELY $6.08 MILLION, OR 5.19 PER CENT OF THE CIRCULATION
- River (RIVER) will unlock 1.1 million tokens on 22 March, valued at approximately $1.614 million, or 2.39 per cent of circulation
About us
Hotcoin ResearchAsHotcoin ExchangeThe core research institute, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your operational tool. We've done you a market profile through Weekly Insight and Insight; we've got an exclusive columnIt's hard to pick(AI+ EXPERT DOUBLE SCREENING), LOCKS OUT POTENTIAL ASSETS AND LOWERS TRIAL ERROR COSTS. EVERY WEEK, OUR FELLOWS WILL PASSLiveFace to face, interpret hot spots, predict trends. We believe that warm company and professional guidance can help more investors cross the cycle and seize the value opportunities of Web3。
Risk tip
The encrypted currency market is more volatile and investments carry risks themselves. We strongly recommend that investors invest in strict risk management frameworks based on a full understanding of these risks to ensure financial security。
