THIS YEAR'S CIRCLE HAS A CONCEPT THAT CAN'T BE BYPASSED. IT'S CALLED "DEMON COIN." IN THE PAST WEEK, THE PRICE OF $RAVE HAS BEEN RISING TO A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 40 TIMES THAT OF A WEEK AGO. TODAY, THE MARKET VALUE OF $RAVE HAS COME TO THE 41ST PLACE IN THE MARKET。

FROM RECENT US$SIREN, US$STO, TO EARLIER US$PIPPIN, US$RIVER, US$BET, US$MYX, ETC. REGARDLESS OF HOW DEPRESSED THE MARKET IS, AND ALTHOUGH THE "DEMON COIN" IS AN ASYMMETRICAL INFORMATION GAME WITH THE DEALER FOR THE DIASPORA, THERE ARE PLAYERS WHO, IN PURSUIT OF VOLATILITY, TRY TO ANALYZE AND TRY TO CAPTURE THE LOGIC BEHIND THE "DEMON COIN" AND FIND A WAY TO WIN。

Even in the Chinese circles, there is a complete "goblinism"。

What's a magic coin

If the definition of "demon" is simply a "demonstration of speed and strength" then "demonstration" ceases to exist. The nature of the game is a direct game with the dealer, tearing a piece of meat from the dealer's manipulation。

On the basis of this essence, KOL encrypted a detailed definition of "demon coin" and defined the basis of "demonism":

- The spot control rate is almost 96%

- There's a Binance contract. It's not that important if it's available

- Massive mobility and rivalry, usually through off-site funding, and in a short period of time, by force

- The dealer finalizes the delivery of the spot and completes the harvesting process by triggering multiple liquidations and profiting from the cost of eating the counterparty

How do you recognize "demon coin"

On this issue, different players have given excellent references from different angles。

The anomaly in the volume of unsettled contracts can be seen from several angles, beginning with "data manipulation". @Arya web3 found 24 hours of open contract data on RAVE on April 11th, with Binance, Bitget, BingX, OKX and Bybit, 60 million, 60 million, 26 million and 26 million dollars, respectively. On the basis of this data, as a whole, of the open volume of contracts with the various exchanges, she speculated that the horizontal comparison of the BingX and Bitget data was unusual and that there was a risk that the open volume data would be manipulated。

IN ADDITION, THE 24-HOUR CONTRACT OF $6.9 BILLION, THE CONTRACT HOLD-UP OF $300 MILLION, THE DEALER 10 TIMES HIGHER THE PRICE FROM THE BOTTOM, AND THE ABSENCE OF A LARGE EXPLOSIVE WAREHOUSE BILL INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT CONTRACT DATA WILL BE MANIPULATED. SHE ALSO MENTIONED THAT OBSERVATION OF THE CONCENTRATION OF WAREHOUSE CONTRACTS IN THOSE EXCHANGES COULD ALSO BE USED AS A BASIS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER THE VOLUME OF OPEN CONTRACTS WAS MANIPULATED IN CERTAIN EXCHANGES。

@thecryptoskanda summarizes and supplements the above observations:

- The lower the average number of open contracts in Binance, the higher the number of dealers

- High volume of contracts/unsettled contracts means the possibility that the data on unsettled contracts will be manipulated High

- This means that all strategies to simply monitor the volume of contracts or the volume of contracts that have not been settled are inappropriate, as it is likely that only the dealer has deliberately stopped manipulating the volume of contracts that have not been settled in order to induce the spread to get in

You might say that this is a "demon coin" analysed through data that have been or are being done. Is there any way to analyze it before it starts

nothing. in the words of @thecryptoskanda:

"It is not because it meets certain targets that it becomes a magic coin. It's because it's a demon's coin, and that's why the indicators are characteristic. The magic coin never makes sense to a large plate. It's only about one thing — is there a lawn?"

How do you judge the evil coin to fall

The first angle, proposed by @wuk Bitcoin, is "a deviation between price and the volume of unsettled contracts", which can be used to determine whether the "demon coin" is nearing collapse. @wuk Bitcoin says that rising prices, but not flat contract volumes, are a sign before the crash。

"The main force flattens all the singles at the top, then holds the price to keep looking for the rivals, and lets the bulks or the electronics come in and do multiple arbitrages, so that with the rivals, the blanks can be folded. When the empty sheet layout is completed, the deposit order is removed, the plate is smashed and the sheet continues to pile up until it finally collapses.”

He also stressed the need to look at data at the hour level, which would otherwise be too small to determine the underlying intent。

There is also a gap in this angle, because the "data manipulation" mentioned earlier. If the time-scale of observation of the volume of open contracts were reduced, there would be another angle: "a large amount of settlement, a sharp fall in the volume of open contracts, led to the eviction of the dealer"。

This angle was developed and supplemented by @ChryptoRunder and @thecryptoskanda:

"The price of a particular location triggers a large amount of liquidation, resulting in a sharp drop in the volume of unsettled contracts, the disappearance of the empty single counterware and the loss of the will of the dealer to maintain high prices, which is a more precise top signal."

While the two above-mentioned angles emphasize “how to escape before the evil coin collapses”, this is already the most rational decision that can be made by a looser player in a game of “demon coins” in which information is so far out of reach that the dealer decides to drop the plate, and to design the trade around this point. After all, before the "demon coin" collapse, the dealer was able to double-blank over and over again, and the fall of the "demon coin" will be irreversible once the dealer has really stepped down and stopped protecting it。

Concluding remarks

Although the gods have tried to find a way to stabilize profits on the "demon coins," we have seen a lot of sharp angles. But what needs to be kept in mind is that the magic coin can be called the magic coin because it has a control rate of 95% or even more。

While we can see the trails of the dealer's manipulation from many dimensions, or even the victory of the "demon" game through these data analysis, the situation of each "demon" is difficult to sum up by analysis and reset on every game。

The dealer behind the Monopoly is the one who holds the script, who can manipulate the data to seduce the gamer, and who can reap it in many ways。

According to @Arya web3, the dealer’s costs for unsettled contract volume manipulation are not high. Based on $7 billion in 24-hour contractual transactions at a rate of 0.005 per cent, 24 hours cost only $350,000。

If the crux of the "demon" trade is "prejudicing the dealer's actions", it's as difficult as the next scene with a man with a script. It's as difficult as the eyes of the sky, and it's not human。