D.C. TO THE CHAIN: HOW MACRO-MOBILITY PAINTS BITCOIN |CEEX OBSERVATION

 

 

FOR THE FIRST TIME, MANY PEOPLE REALIZED THAT THE “WASHINGTON TO THE CHAIN” INVISIBLE PIPELINE WAS IN THE MIDST OF THE MOST RECENT ROUND OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT'S SUSPENSION. THE UNITED STATES TREASURY HAS OPENED A LARGE “CURRENT ACCOUNT” IN THE FED, CALLED TGA, WHERE ALL TAX AND DEBT REVENUES ARE REMITTED TO THE POOL AND THEN CHANNELLED TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENTS THROUGH VARIOUS TYPES OF FISCAL SPENDING. IN NORMAL YEARS, TGA IS MORE LIKE A CAPITAL TRANSIT STATION, ENTERING AND LEAVING, AND EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE COMMERCIAL BANKING SYSTEM, BECOMING A BANK RESERVE AND BECOMING ONE OF THE SOURCES OF MARKET LIQUIDITY。

THE GOVERNMENT HAS STALLED: THE TREASURY IS STILL COLLECTING MONEY AND PAYING DEBTS, AND TGA BALANCES ARE PILING UP, BUT THE BUDGET IS STUCK IN CONGRESS, WITH HUGE SPENDING ON THE GROUND, AND THE MONEY IS LOCKED IN A BLACK HOLE THAT CAN ONLY GO IN. RECENT STATISTICS SHOW THAT, SINCE THE COLLAPSE IN OCTOBER, THE TGA BALANCE HAS GONE FROM APPROXIMATELY $800 BILLION TO TRILLIONS OF LEVELS, EQUIVALENT TO HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THAT HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM, WITH AN EFFECT CLOSE TO A SMALL “ABBREVIATION”。

AFTER THE BANK RESERVE HAD BEEN SUCKED AWAY BY THE RAINBOW, THE OVERNIGHT MONEY MARKET HAD STARTED TO BURN, SOFR INTEREST RATES AND THE RFP (SRF) HAD RISEN SHARPLY, AND THE BANK HAD PREFERRED TO BORROW AT HIGHER COST ONLY TO ENSURE THAT IT WAS “FOOD OUT” OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE IS SLOWLY TRANSMITTED ALONG THE CREDIT CHAIN, STRIKING THE ALREADY FRAGILE CORNERS OF COMMERCIAL PROPERTY AND SUBPRIME MORTGAGES, AND FINALLY APPEARING ON YOUR FAMILIAR TECHNOLOGY STOCK AND ENCRYPTED CURRENCY。

 

FOR CHAIN ASSETS, THE MOST SENSITIVE IS OFTEN FUTURE LEVERAGE. THE FRONT FOOT WAS ALSO THE COMFORT OF “THE CATTLE MARKET IS JUST A NORMAL READJUSTMENT”, FOLLOWED BY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN A FORCED SILO, WITH MULTIPLE LEVERS BEING TAKEN AWAY. TGA, LIKE A BLOOD PUMP, LOCKS A LITTLE MORE CASH IN WASHINGTON, AND THE EXCHANGE HAS A FEW LONG SHADOWS OR A LONG SHADOW, AND THE NEWCOMERS SEE ONLY THE “NEGATIVE CHAMBER”, AND THE OLD TRADER'S BRAIN SHOWS A MORE BORING PICTURE: THE TREASURY'S ACCOUNT BALANCE CURVE。

The standstill will always end, the budget will one day pass, and suppressed fiscal spending will re-grow into the market. Macro traders Raoul Pal and old guns such as Arthur Hayes describe the current phase almost in unison as a "suffering window": The first half is a combination of fiscal and central banks, which will endure a period of financial deflation; the second half, once replaced by a re-inflation approach, will require liquidity to pay for the rolling trillions of dollars of public debt, and risk assets will be forced to catch the water released again。

For newers who are still reading the White Paper, the focus is not on the specific tools represented by each abbreviation, but on an experience:When there is an unconventional accumulation of fiscal accounts, Bitcoin tends to give a difficult period of adjustment; it is often the turn of the chain to restore assets when Governments reopen and expenditure normalizes。

 

 

IT TOOK MANY YEARS FOR GLOBAL LIQUIDITY TO QUIETLY DRAW A “BOTTOMLINE” FOR BITCOIN TO TAKE ITS PERSPECTIVE AWAY FROM WASHINGTON. RESEARCH INSTITUTES COMBINE M2 MONEY SUPPLY IN MAJOR ECONOMIES SUCH AS THE UNITED STATES, THE EURO ZONE, JAPAN AND CHINA INTO WHAT IS KNOWN AS THE “GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INDEX”. THE CONCLUSIONS OF SEVERAL STUDIES ARE QUITE SIMILAR: FROM 2013 TO 2024, BITCOIN PRICES AND GLOBAL M2 INDICATORS WERE CLOSE TO 0.94, WITH SIMPLE TRANSLATIONS BEING “ALMOST IDENTICAL”。

From the point of time, the story is more intuitive. After the outbreak, in 2020-2021, central banks, in an effort to hold back the economy, large-scale easing, and global M2, stormed in a short period of time, with bitcoin running out of an epic cow market. Following this period, which began in 2022, the interest rate and scale cycles began, liquidity went back, bitcoin withdrew 70% from the high points, drawing a standard “high jump” trajectory. The analysis by S& P Global even folds the Federal Reserve balance sheet and Bitcoin prices directly, pointing out that the large increase in 2017 and the sharp fall in 2018 correspond to a shift in easing and contraction, respectively。

 

After entering 2024, there's another interesting turning point on the curve. According to agencies such as Bitget, the global M2 has accelerated its expansion from early 2024 to about $112 trillion in mid-2025, with a cumulative increase of more than twice the amount of bitcoin over the cycle. Coinbase's research team simply built a Global M2 Liquidity Index and measured the index as about 110 days ahead of Bitcoin: the index rose first, and after three or four months, Bitcoin filled the price。

Macro trader Raoul Pal gave an image: Bitcoin is more like the “Gupta Chip Unit” of the global liquidity cycle. Each round of global M2 roll-up moves first to pull the core of assets (national debt, equity) and then to push higher-risk assets into an even more exaggerated increase; once the liquidity slope is flatened or even reversed, bitcoin tends to adjust and “call the alarm” the entire risk curve。

 

A LOT OF NEWCOMERS WOULD ASK, "IS THAT ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS SEE M2 UP AND DO IT WITHOUT THINKING?" REALITY IS ALWAYS MORE COMPLEX. M2 IS A BROAD INDICATOR, AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WHOLE SET OF SCRIPTS SUCH AS INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, POLITICAL CYCLES, ETC., AND AN INCREASE IN THE MONEY SUPPLY DOES NOT MEAN THAT EACH UNIT WILL RUN THE CHAIN WITH ADDITIONAL FUNDS. FOR THE FAMILY, INSTEAD OF USING M2 AS A ALMIGHTY PREDICTOR, IT WOULD BE BETTER TO USE IT AS A "BACKGROUND NOISE FILTER": WHEN THE INDEX RISES RAPIDLY, THE DAY OF EXTREME PESSIMISM IN PRICES TENDS TO BE NEARER TO THE MIDWAY SHUFFLE; WHEN THE INDEX STARTS TO PEAK OR EVEN TO FALL BACK, THERE IS AN EXAGGERATING LINE ON THE SURFACE, THE RISK IS NO LONGER JUST FRIENDS。

 

 

 

MACRO RESERVOIRS ARE INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON SEVERAL NEW PIPES: SPOT ETF, STABILIZATION CURRENCY AND EXCHANGE, DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE WATER IS SCARCE OR NOT。

Watch ETF first. Since early 2024, when the United States adopted its first spotting bitcoin ETF, traditional financial resources have been given more “decent” access. In the first three months, a combined net inflow of more than $15 billion was absorbed by BlackRock, Fidelity and other fund-led products, with transactions even approaching the maturity of the gold ETF. By the fall of 2025, statistics showed that the cumulative net inflows to the United States of cash BTC ETF had reached a level of approximately $61 billion, with total turnover approaching $1.5 trillion, with the highest single-day net inflows recorded again in the recent past, reaching $524 million。

 

FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF INDIVIDUAL BULK WALLETS, ETF SEEMS TO HAVE JUST ONE MORE "FUND CODE TO BUY BTC." IT IS MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FROM A MACRO POINT OF VIEW: INSURANCE COMPANIES, PENSION FUNDS, FAMILY OFFICES, ETC., OFTEN CANNOT OPEN EXCHANGE ACCOUNTS DIRECTLY, BUT CAN ALLOCATE ETF SHARES WITHIN A COMPLIANCE FRAMEWORK. ONCE LIQUIDITY IS CONNECTED THROUGH THE ETF PIPELINE, WASHINGTON ANNOUNCES AN INTEREST RATE RESOLUTION, A US DEBT AUCTION SENTIMENT, WHICH CAN BE MORE DIRECTLY REFLECTED IN ETF’S BUY-BACK AND RE-REFLECTED BACK TO THE SPOT AND FUTURES MARKETS。

The stabilization currency is another, more “unhappily” water route. In a study published in 2025 by the Financial Services Agency of Japan, it was mentioned that at the end of 2024, the total market value of the global stable currency stood at $200 billion for the first time and continued to expand in 2025, with the largest share of USDT in the long term, followed by USDC with a variety of new income-type stable currencies. By the fall of 2025, the figures given by TD Securities were approximately $250 billion, compared to the $159 billion jump in the summer of 2024。

 

More interesting is profitability. Morgan Stanley calculated in an analysis that USDT issuer Tether made a net profit of approximately $13.7 billion in 2024, with a total of about 150 employees at the time of writing, equivalent to more than $90 million in “manmade” profits, backed by large reserves and interest on short-term national debt. In other words, the currency of stability has been transformed from a mere “dollar moving” tool into a highly profitable, cash-flowed shadow banking system。

For the encrypted market, the supply of stable currencies is often seen as a real-time thermometer for chain mobility: aggregate supply continues to grow, representing more funds stationed on the chain waiting for opportunities; aggregate contractions or the return of French currency often mean that some players are leaving. Over the past two years, there has been a growing correlation between bitcoin and the total market value of stable currencies, and large single-day increases or redemptions tend to cause price fluctuations simultaneously in bitcoin and the mainstream。

IF YOU PUT ETF TOGETHER WITH THE STABLE CURRENCY, YOU FIND A CLEAR STRUCTURE:MACRO-LIQUIDITY DETERMINES THE “WATER LEVEL”, THE ETF AND THE STABILIZATION CURRENCY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR DIRECTING THE WATER TO WHICH POOL。For some time, the ETF requisitions have pulled the funds of traditional institutions into bitcoin, then amplified fluctuations through exchanges and futures markets; for another time, stabilization currency has become more used in emerging market payments, off-site settlements, and the chain has spread more to various applications, such as DeFi and GameFi. Macroanalysis, however, needs to be read in conjunction with these pipelines to be closer to real capital flows。

 

 

If only a few years into the circle, working during the day, watching the Fed’s meeting live, and hoping to get a little bit of the macro beat outside of the mood, you could try to build a very simple watch sheet that would condensate complex global liquidity into several pages。

FIRST GLANCE TO THE M2 INDICATOR. MANY RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS USE THE GLOBAL M2 OR THE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INDEX AS AN OPEN CHART, AND NEWCOMERS DO NOT CARE HOW EACH OF THEM IS WEIGHTED, BUT LEARN TO RECOGNIZE THE BIG TRENDS: WHETHER THE OVERALL CURVE IS UP, EVEN OR DOWN. WHEN THE TREND IS EVIDENTLY UPWARDS, WHEN THERE IS A SUDDEN DROP IN EXTREME PANIC DAYS THAT ARE NOT NORMAL, MORE PATIENCE CAN REDUCE THE URGE TO PURSUE THE PANIC AND MAGGOT; WHEN THE CURVE IS CLEARLY AT THE TOP AND EVEN TURNS AROUND, EVEN WHEN THE CIRCLE OF FRIENDS IS BLOWING “SUPER-CYCLES” IT IS NECESSARY TO SET A SECURITY CUSHION FOR THE POSITION。

The second eye is on the central bank agenda. In the fall of 2025, the Fed ended the current round of quantitative austerity and moved the target area of the Federal Fund downwards to 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent, with the market generally expecting further interest rate reductions. For risk assets, the point is not a single turn of 25 basis points, but rather a shift in direction from “tight” to “spine”. Alongside the fiscal stimulus plans of Europe and the United States, Japan and China, Arthur Hayes would have put forward the idea that the “floating French currency flood has not really receded” or even directly targeted a million-dollar-grade bitcoin forward。

THE THIRD FOCUS IS ON THE “WATER TABLE” INSIDE THE ENCRYPTION CIRCLE: THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF THE STABLE CURRENCY, THE DAILY NET INFLOW OF MAINSTREAM SPOT ETF, AND THE UNEVEN AMOUNT OF CONTRACTS. THESE INDICATORS ARE USUALLY CONVENIENTLY CONSOLIDATED WEBSITES AND ARE MUCH MORE PROFICIENT THAN PROFESSIONAL MACROMAPS. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE UNITED STATES, SINGLE-DAY NET INFLOWS OF ETF ARE OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY BITCOIN REBOUNDING FROM THE BASE OF THE PHASE; ONCE THE LARGE NET OUTFLOWS CONTINUE, CARE MUST BE TAKEN WHETHER THERE ARE INSTITUTIONS AT THE TOP OF THE TREND。

 

The last dimension is for psychological construction. In interviews, Raoul Pal repeatedly reminded long-term holders that there are only two questions that really need to be answered — will the future world be more digital than today? Will the global liquidity cycle continue to expand in order to refinance trillions of dollars of national debt? If the answer to both questions is yes, short-term volatility is more like a gifted window of construction than a fateful nightmare。

Looking at these eyes, the newcomers may still be confused about the professional meaning of each macrodata, but they have been able to pull themselves out of a purely emotional “tracing down” pattern. At least ask yourself one more thing before we leverage it:Is it the upward or down phase of mobility

 

 

 

Over the past decade or so, many people have used Bitcoin's “four-year half-cycle” to find a rhythm for the market: one year before the halving began to pre-heat, one year after the halving went up and then entered the long bear market. While experience is useful, it is becoming increasingly difficult to explain the current situation alone. Arthur Hayes and a group of macro-level investors have openly argued that the real dominant dominant of each wheel is not the halving itself, but the location where macro-mobility occurs when it occurs。

Turning back to history, there have been several major retreats, with 2014, 2018 and 2022 responding to varying degrees of monetary tightening: either the interest rate hike has come to an end or the abbreviation has accelerated. On the other hand, the sharpest rounds of the increase are almost on the loose cycle: the global “salvation market” in the aftermath of the epidemic, which puts the bitcoin directly above 60,000 dollars; and the current trend, which is also being reversed at the same time as the multi-country central banks’ re-enlargement and nominal interest rates, with only half-way geopolitics and regulatory games, making the road even more remote。

 

For individual investors, the more realistic issue is not to argue whether “the halving has failed”, but to adjust its narrative priorities. The narrative on the chain is still important, with L2 expansion, Bitcoin ecology, Restaking, and the new public chain all going around at some stage; but, at a higher level, the macrodramatic decision allows much imagination. The same story can hold up 100 times more in a year of ample liquidity; in a year of tight liquidity, the sexiest white paper will not escape the fate of “talking to stock money”。

THEN PULL BACK TO THE QUESTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE ARTICLE: WHY DOES A D.C. ANNOUNCEMENT MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR THE MONEY IN YOUR HAND TO TURN AT ONCE? THE ANSWER GOES FAR BEYOND “INSTITUTIONALLY TOO BAD”. THE BUDGET PULL CHANGES THE TGA BALANCE, THE FED ADJUSTS THE BALANCE SHEET SLOPE, THE GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK IS IN A DIFFICULT POSITION BETWEEN DEBT AND INFLATION, AND THE ETF AND THE STABILIZATION CURRENCY ARE IMPORTING MACRO FUNDS INTO THE CHAIN, MAGNIFYING EVERY HESITATION AND GREED IN LINE K。

 

LOOKING BACK AT THE CURRENT MARKET FROM A MACRO-LIQUID POINT OF VIEW, BITCOIN HAS LONG BEEN USING THE WHOLE DOLLAR SYSTEM AND THE GLOBAL DEBT STRUCTURE AS A TESTING GROUND, NOT JUST BY HALVING THE STORY. WHETHER D.C.’S GAME ON THE BUDGET OR THE CENTRAL BANK OF EUROPE AND JAPAN’S FINE-TUNING OF INTEREST RATES, IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE CHANNELLED TO CHAIN ASSETS ALONG MULTIPLE CHANNELS, SUCH AS ETFS, STABILIZATION CURRENCIES, AND EXCHANGES. INSTITUTIONS WILLING TO CONTINUE DEEP CULTIVATION IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD TRANSFORM THEMSELVES INTO “HEADS” CAPABLE OF TRULY CARRYING INCREMENTAL MOBILITY. THE RECENT PROMOTION OF THE AFRICAN MARKET LANDSCAPE BY INVITING LOCAL DEVELOPERS TO WORK WITH INSTITUTIONS ON A COMPLIANCE BUSINESS MAP, ON THE ONE HAND, AND THE SUBMISSION OF THE DUBAI VASP LICENCE APPLICATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ON THE OTHER, TO PLACE THE BROKER SYSTEM AND CMC MINING IN A BROADER REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, ON THE OTHER HAND, WOULD BE TANTAMOUNT TO PRE-POSITIONING THE CANALS FOR THE NEXT CYCLE。

 

For individual investors, it might be more meaningful not to focus on the next cut-off date, but to learn to bridge the macrorate with platform options. At the macro level, it is possible to try to understand the most basic mobility curves; at the micro level, it is possible to choose exchanges that are willing to open rules, build systems around brokers and long-line incentives, such as mining around CMC design interests, and CEEX, which highlights broker entry and path in a new version of App, consciously tie Platform revenues to user retention. By the time the next wave of wind from Washington or other capital centres suddenly changes direction, there is both a basic judgement of mobility and a relatively reliable infrastructure in hand, and the pain caused by shocks still exists and is no longer completely incomprehensible。Macro liquidity can be used as a slow-moving negative, with prices only carved out on the negative, and the clearer the direction of the negative, the weaker the stifling stick from each sudden episode。