Four months double the price. How much longer is the memory card going to go up

Since this year, NAND flash prices have entered a new fast-rising cycle, with retail prices of consumer-grade stored products bearing the brunt. In October 2025, a Sandisk Extreme 128GB microSD card sold $17 in Amazonia. In February this year, the same card was sold at close to $40. Less than four months, up 130%。

It is first necessary to clarify the distinction between memory cards for memory bars, which are not the same product category. The memory bar (RAM) is a temporary memory inside the computer, which is used to read and write data when running the program. The data disappears after the power breaks. Memory cards (e.g. microSD cards) are external extended storage for long-term preservation of documents such as photographs, videos, etc., without loss of data following power outages. The price increases discussed here are for the latter, memory cards and the NAND flash chip behind them。

THE PRICE OF THE MEMORY CARD IS CONSTANTLY RISING, BEHIND WHICH IS THE SYSTEMATIC RE-PRICING OF THE ENTIRE NAND FLASH MARKET. THE STARTING POINT FOR RE-PRICING IS THAT THE AI DATA CENTRE IS COMPETING FOR THE SAME CRYSTAL CIRCLE。

The contract price's up 50%

First say what happened。

Global NAND flash contract prices have risen rapidly since the end of last year. According to TrendForce, a market research institute released in February this year, the overall NAND contract price increased by approximately 55-60 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to last quarter, with firm-level firm hard drive (Enterprise SSD) increasing by 53-58 per cent, updating the single-season increase. At the same time, TrendForce predicts a further 70-75 per cent increase in the overall NAND contract price for the second quarter。

These figures represent the unit price of contracts signed in bulk between large customers and do not directly correspond to retail pricing for electrical platforms. However, retail prices at the consumer level rose more sharply than contract prices. Figure 1 The right-hand column, representing 130 percent, is the price shock that ordinary consumers really feel。

WHY IS RETAIL GOING UP FAR BEYOND CONTRACTS? THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONSUMER END IS THE "SURPLUS DISTRIBUTION MARKET". IN DEVELOPING DELIVERY PLANS, NAND ORIGINAL PLANTS GAVE PRIORITY TO LARGE CLIENTS WITH LONG-TERM FRAMEWORK AGREEMENTS, INCLUDING AI DATA CENTRE OPERATORS AND SUPER-LARGE CLOUD SERVICE PROVIDERS. WHEN THIS SHIPMENT IS DELIVERED, THE REMAINING STOCKS ENTER THE DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS IN THE CONSUMER MARKET. SUPPLY HAS BEEN COMPRESSED AND THE BULK MARKET HAS ALMOST ZERO BUFFER AGAINST PRICE INCREASES, RESULTING IN SHARPER INCREASES AT THE RETAIL END THAN AT THE CONTRACTUAL END。

Kingston publicly confirmed this year that its NAND round procurement costs were 246 per cent higher than a year ago. This is a cost shock at the raw material level, which is eventually passed to consumers through product sales。

HOW DID THE PRICE OF A MEMORY CARD GET PUSHED UP BY AI

This chart has two key points that deserve to be singled out。

The first is around October 2025, where relatively low-priced storage cards are available on the market. That period was at the end of the previous supply cycle. Between 2023 and 2024, large storage plants accumulated large stockpiles in a weak demand environment and prices continued to decline. Photographers, creators, and game players all filled up a large number of storage cards in that window at historically low prices。

The second node is the fourth quarter of 2025. Samsung, Kioxia, Micron, and SK Hercules announced a cut in production and raised the price, which turned the situation upside down in a short period of time. Samsung raised more than 100 per cent of its corporate clients, and Zhang made it clear that in 2026, all of his capacity was pre-sold to a large customer, and the consumer market was cut off。

SINCE THEN, THE RETAIL VALUE OF THE STORAGE CARD HAS CLIMBED, AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL REACH THE 50-60 DOLLAR RANGE BY MID-2026, WITH NO RETURN WINDOW FOR THE YEAR. THIS IS NOT A MARKET SPECULATION, BUT RATHER A RESTRUCTURING OF SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION MECHANISMS AT THE STRUCTURAL LEVEL. CONSUMER AND BUSINESS PRODUCTS WERE LARGELY EQUALLY INVOLVED IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF CAPACITY UNTIL AI DATA CENTRES BECAME THE HIGHEST PRIORITY BUYER IN THE NAND MARKET. THE CONSUMER END IS NOW THE LAST RECIPIENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION CHAIN。

This time, it's completely different from 2017

THE NAND INDUSTRY UNDERGOES A CYCLE OF PRICES APPROXIMATELY EVERY THREE TO FOUR YEARS. THE LAST TYPICAL PRICE INCREASE TOOK PLACE IN 2016-2017 AND LASTED ALMOST TWO YEARS. THE REASON FOR THAT ROUND WAS THE TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSITION FROM 2D NAND TO 3D NAND. THE NEW STACKING PROCESS SLOWS DOWN EFFECTIVE OUTPUT AT A GOOD RATE OF CLIMB AND THE TIGHTENING OF SUPPLIES PUSHES UP PRICES. BUT ONCE THE 3D NAND PRODUCTION LINE HAS STABILIZED, SAMSUNG, SK HERCULES, U.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.A.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.A.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.A.S.S.S.S.S.S.A.S.S.S.S.S.S.A.S.S.S., WHICH QUICKLY SLIPPED FROM A SHORTAGE TO EXCESS, PRICES FELL IN A REBOUND AT THE BEGINNING OF 2018。

The driving forces at this time are completely different, and the path of repair is therefore very different。

According to TrendForce, global NAND demand is expected to increase by 20-22 per cent in 2026, while supply-side growth is only 15-17 per cent. The absolute value of the gap is not large, but in a large market, supply and demand differentials of a few percentage points can drive a very sharp price response. More importantly, this gap is not caused by technical problems but by structural demand shifts. AI Data Centre consumes NAND capacity in a continuous, large and high-priority manner, without ceilings for this demand。

THE NEW CAPACITY WILL EASE SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS UNTIL THE END OF 2027 TO 2028. THE NAND PRODUCTION LINE IN THE P4 PLANT AREA OF SANSINGKYO, THE EXPANSION OF THE NEW CIRCLE FACTORY IN IDAHO IN THE UNITED STATES, AND THE MANDARIN ROCK HAND PLANT POINT TO THIS TIME WINDOW. THE YEAR 2026 WAS THE LARGEST GAP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND, NOT THE TURNING POINT OF PRICES。

The manufacturer wasn't incapable, he offered to sell it to the highest bidder

THE FOLLOWING FIGURE SHOWS THE ESSENCE OF THE PRICE INCREASE. IN THE INCOME STRUCTURE OF THE NAND INDUSTRY, THE SHARE OF ENTERPRISE-LEVEL PRODUCTS (AI DATA CENTRE SOLID-STATE HARD DRIVES, COMMON SERVER STORAGE) IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY. THE SHARE OF ENTERPRISE-LEVEL PRODUCTS IN TOTAL NAND INCOME HAS RISEN FROM ABOUT 45 PER CENT IN 2024 TO ABOUT 62 PER CENT IN 2026, AND THE SHARE OF CONSUMPTION AND CLIENT MARKETS HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM 55 PER CENT TO ABOUT 38 PER CENT, ACCORDING TO A COMBINATION OF INDUSTRY ESTIMATES。

THE LOGIC BEHIND THIS MIGRATION IS STRAIGHTFORWARD: THE SAME CRYSTAL AREA, THE UNIT PROFITS OF THE PRODUCTION ENTERPRISE-LEVEL HIGH-DENSITY QLC SOLID-STATE HARD DRIVES, WHICH ARE 3-5 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE PRODUCTION-GRADE STORAGE CARDS. THE DISTRIBUTION OF CAPACITY AMONG THE ZHANG MAN AND SAMSUNG MANUFACTURERS FOLLOWS THE PRINCIPLE OF MAXIMIZING COMMERCIAL BENEFITS, GIVING THE BEST ROUND SCHEDULE TO THE HIGHEST-PRICED BUYER。

This mechanism also has a hidden effect. When the available stocks in the consumer market are reduced, distributors and retail chambers of commerce speed up their readiness to hedge against future price increases, which further accelerates the decomposition of consumer-end stocks and creates a self-enhancement cycle of price increases。

FOR CONSUMERS, THE PRICE OF STORAGE CARDS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR A CONSIDERABLE PERIOD OF TIME, NOT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF CAPACITY OF THE CRYSTAL ROUND, BUT BECAUSE THE DISTRIBUTION PRIORITIES OF THE CONSUMER MARKET HAVE BEEN REDUCED AT THE SYSTEMIC LEVEL. WHEN THE PACE OF CONSTRUCTION OF THE AI COMPUTING INFRASTRUCTURE SLOWS, THE EXCESS CAPACITY OF THE CRYSTAL CIRCLE WILL BE RESTORED TO THE CONSUMER SUPPLY CHAIN, BUT THAT IS AFTER 2027。

THE SD CARD IN YOUR CAMERA, THE WORLD'S LARGEST AI DATA CENTRE, IS USING THE SAME CRYSTAL CIRCLE. NOW YOU KNOW WHO WON。