Original title: 4 Magna Carta Qualification Indicators, 3 Magna Carta Queue

Original by Wenser, Odaily Daily Planet

AFTER EIGHT CYCLES OF SUNLIGHT, THE BTC TURNED AROUND AGAIN, MOVING FROM $76,000 TO $69,200, WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROVISIONALLY REPORTED。Main bottom-copying indicators used in past industries, including Ahr999 (also known as the "9 God Index"), RSI, STH-SOPR (the average price bought by short-term holders), LTH (the average price bought by long-term holders), MVRV Z-Score (the market value ratio achieved), are in a state of "failure": many indicators, though low, continue to decline in the market; some of them are high, but the market occasionally surges。

IN VIEW OF THIS, WE WILL PRESENT FOUR REPRESENTATIVE BOTTOM-UP INDICATORS IN THE INDUSTRY, AND TRY TO EXPLORE THE BTC'S DOWNSIDE SPACE BY BUILDING A NEW BOTTOM-DOWN INDICATOR THAT COMBINES DATA AND REAL-LIFE INDICATORS。

THE FOLLOWING ARE FOR LEARNING EXCHANGES ONLY AND DO NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT PROPOSALS, AND ALL INVESTMENT RISKS ARE SELF-SUSTAINING。

4 The Big Classic indicator looks at BTC as the bottom-up time: the best time is not yet, the BTC will fall 6w

FROM THE 126,000 DOLLARS IN OCTOBER LAST YEAR TO THE 70,000 DOLLARS TODAY, THE PRICE OF THE BTC WAS LIKE A ROLLER COASTER IN JUST A FEW MONTHS. IN SUCH A VOLATILE AND ENCRYPTED MARKET ENVIRONMENT, A NUMBER OF INDUSTRY INDICATORS HAVE LOST THEIR REFERENCE VALUE, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, DYNAMIC AND FLEXIBLE MACHINE PRICES FOR MINING INSTITUTIONS, THE INDUSTRY PANIC AND GREED INDEX, GOOGLE SEARCH HEAT INDEX AND A RAINBOW MAP BASED ON THE BTC EARLY PENETRATION PHASE。

THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOTHING BUT THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE BTC’S ASSESSMENT SYSTEM FOLLOWING BTC’S INFLOW OF SPOT ETF FUNDS, THE GROWING NUMBER OF UNITED STATES-OWNED DAT TREASURY COMPANIES, AND THE OPENING UP OF UNITED STATES REGULATORS, WITH INSTITUTIONAL HOLDING, DERIVATIVE ARBITRAGE, INTERNAL SETTLEMENT OF TRADING PLATFORMS, AND MACRO-ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES AND EVEN GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS AS FACTORS INFLUENCING BTC’S HIGHER PRICE WEIGHT。In other words, past chain indicators, gains and losses can only be used as references, not as intuitive conclusions。

Here, we use sectoral indicators, which are still fairly representative within the industry, for data presentation and analysis of results, perhaps more intuitively illustrating the failure of the old indicators。

Indicator 1: MVRV Z-Score, collective deviation of anchor value systems

Figure I

Figure II

Figure III

As at 18 March, MRVR indicators were provisionally reported as 1.31; prior to that, in February, a encryption researcher anıl had stated that "bitcoin was at the lowest price when MVRV Z-Score fell below 0, especially below -0.20。

In the current cycle, bitcoin touched the lowest value of +0.26, which means that the classic "green zone" has not yet been tested. On March 14, Bitcoin News wrote that MVRV Z Score had been reduced to about 0.38, a level that had previously foreshadowed undervaluation。

Other key supporting positions include realized prices near $54,000 and 200-week moving average lines near $58,000. Bloomberg notes that the potential bottom zone ranges from $45,000 to $55,000, but a sustained recovery needs new demand support. (Chart 3 above)

Reasons for expiry:The large-scale holding of the ETF Trust and DAT Corporation systematically raised the realized value (RV), resulting in a significant increase in the denominator (standard deviation) of Z-Score, which has historically been extremely negative and has become extremely difficult to recover under the current structure。

Indicator II: Ahr999 index (9 gods index), 0.45, below is taken up for nearly 50 days

From 1 February to the present, the Ahr 999 indicator has been in the range of nearly 50 days, averaged below 0.45, compared with the historical < 0.45 days are only 612 days, representing an overall ratio of about 11 per cent. On 19 March, Ahr 999, with 0.37, showed that it was still a bottom zone, but that it was difficult to give more long-term guidance。

Reasons for expiry:The market has been in a state of collapse since last October 11th, with the multi-variant policy of folding trump, lower interest rates than expected from the Fed, and international geopolitical winds, and BTC’s risk-averse properties, thus breaking down the biggest BTC DAT listing company, Strategy, which was 76,000 years after its previous cost line, waiting for more capital-flowing repairs, an indicator that has gradually become a comfort index for “permanentist value investors.”。

INDICATOR III: SOPR, STH-SOPR SUSTAINED BELOW 1, LTH-SOPR SUSTAINED AT 0.75-1

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is usually used as the average profit/loss margin for moving chips on the chain, where LTH-SOPR focuses on long-term holders holding warehouses for more than 155 days. LTH-SOPR 1 usually represents the beginning of the loss and loss of goods at the bottom of the deep bear market。

In February, Bitfinex issued an analytical report that showed that the adjusted SOPR (output profit ratio) had been reduced to 0.92 to 0.94, reflecting the fact that most currencies were moving in a state of loss and structural pressures remained。

On 14 March, the Glassnode Weekly Report also noted that the 7-day average of STH-SOPR was at 0.985, with a period of less than 1 consecutively exceeding since October 2025 - a typical bear-city institutional feature. It's a distinctive feature of the bear market cycle. At the same time, changes in the net position of LTH suggest that the old chips are still declining, but the pace has slowed significantly, switching from radical distribution in Q3/Q4,2025 to a more moderate pattern of profitability。

Inactive performance:THE FALL IN SURRENDER WITHOUT OLD LEVERAGE DOES NOT CONSTITUTE THE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE. STH-SOPR CONTINUES TO BE BELOW 1 IS CONFIRMED BY BEAR CITY, BUT THE LTH-SOPR TURNING POINT IS THE REAL BOTTOM LINE。

INDICATOR IV: BTC MEYER INDEX, BELOW 0.8 FOR NEARLY 50 DAYS

As an industry indicator based only on BTC current prices compared to 200-day moving averages, the BTC Meyer Index and the Nine Gods Index are similar and have been below 0.8 for nearly 50 days. In the past, < 0.8 is a historical undervalued price range. Thus, although the index is based on simple price averages, does not rely on chain transaction data and is relatively less influenced by institutionalization, it is difficult to constitute a continuous bottom-up indicator。

3 LARGE INDICATOR OR DISPLAY BOTTOM ZONE OF BEAR: CVDD BASE, NUPL NEGATIVE, STABLE CURRENCY TRADING PLATFORM INFLOW VOLUME

CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Detroyed): personal bottom model for analysts

This indicator was developed by Willy Woo, an encrypted analyst, to track the cumulative holding weight of the BTC between different price zones and to construct a "historical bottom" curve。

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE CURVE WAS CLOSE TO BTC MARKET PRICES TWICE IN DECEMBER 2018 AND NOVEMBER 2022, BUT IT HAS NOT FALLEN SO FAR。

CURRENTLY, THE CVDD MODEL SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT BTC BASE IS APPROXIMATELY $45,000。

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): BTC net gain/loss on the whole network

This indicator is primarily used to measure net unrealized gains and losses across the network, with the following general criteria:

High NUPL(> 50%):The peak driven by greed; the ideal choice for profit back。

Low NUPL(< 0%):Fear or surrender; potential bottom。

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE LAST NUPL INDICATOR FELL TO NEGATIVE VALUES BETWEEN JUNE 2022 AND JANUARY 2023。

AT PRESENT, THE NUPL INDICATOR IS STILL AROUND 0.2。

Stablecoin Exchange Netflow: Stable currency trading platform net inflows

This indicator is used primarily to determine whether the stable currency is a back-to-back trading platform, that is, the upcoming precursor to the market purchase。HISTORICALLY, THE RECOVERY IN NET INFLOWS OF STABLE CURRENCIES HAS CONTINUED, OFTEN AHEAD OF THE BTC SUBSTANTIAL REBOUND OF 2-4 WEEKS。

The logic behind the entry into force of this indicator is that there is no price rebound to stabilize the return of currency, but a leveraging-driven technical jump, with minimal sustainability。

SO FAR, USDT, USDC, WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF THE STABLE CURRENCY MARKET, IS STILL BLEEDING, AND STILL QUITE FAR FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE BTC。

Final remarks: Buying in the open and selling in the open

At the end of the article, we still need to emphasize that the indicators above are a reference and that specific trading and investment strategies vary according to individual, agency-specific risk preferences, volume of funds and even lead times。

However, perhaps more flexible than the bottom-up indicators – as was the case in the previous period, when the BTC discussion spread to its own side of gold and silver, whether on the subway, or ton's barber teacher, when they started asking you about BTC, Cripto, and encrypted money-related investments, it might be best to sell them in time。

It is hoped that each of us will wait until that day to begin a "great retreat of our own"。

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