It's a new round of negotiations. Bitcoin's back on the dollar

Original by ChandlerZ, Foresight News

ON APRIL 14, THE BTC WENT UP FROM THE VICINITY OF $70,500, RE-POSTED $74,000, ETH 7.63 PER CENT, REPORTING APPROXIMATELY $2367. THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF ENCRYPTION HAS RECOVERED TO APPROXIMATELY $2.52 TRILLION, WITH BITCOIN HOLDING BETWEEN 57 AND 58 PER CENT。

According to Alternative.me, the encrypted currency panic and greed index rose today to 21 (the index was 12 "extreme panic" yesterday), indicating that the market is in "extreme panic". At the beginning of April, the lowest touch was 8, a rare reading since 2022。

On the traditional financial markets, the Standard 500 rose by 1.02 per cent and reported 6886 points, recovering all the land lost since the war in Iran, breaking 6878 points on February 27th. The increase was 1.23 per cent, with nine consecutive increases, the longest since September 2025. For the fourth consecutive day, the Philly semiconductor index was at a new high, with the first time in history, a rise of 9000 points。

The oil price shock was massive, with Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil touching at one point US$ 106.49/barrel, but with the expected warming in the peace talks, the WTI crude oil tailings fell to US$ 99.08, and Brent received US$ 99.36, which did not hold the $100 threshold. The gold dropped by 0.21 per cent and reported $4739. The United States dollar fell by 0.24 per cent for more than a month, and the offshore renminbi rose by 6.8 per cent to three years。

The US and Iran are still in contact and the market has chosen to ease the bet

At the time of Astro, the negotiations in Islamabad ended in a failure after more than 20 hours on April 11 to 12, when Vance returned empty-handed, focusing on the Iranian nuclear programme and the red line of uranium enrichment. Following the breakdown of the negotiations, Trump announced that the United States forces immediately launched a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which came into effect on 13 April at 20 o'clock, targeting all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports。

Following the entry into force of the blockade, Trump spoke in social media and any Iranian rapid attack boat close to the blockade area would be " immediately eliminated". Oil prices, rates of return on United States debt and the United States dollar jumped simultaneously in Asia and the Pacific。

At night, Trump said to the media at the White House: “This morning, the right person and the right person called us and they wanted to reach an agreement. He did not indicate who was involved in the conversation. At almost the same time, Bloomberg quoted informed sources that discussions were under way to hold a second round of face-to-face negotiations aimed at reaching a longer-term ceasefire programme before the expiration of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on 7 April。

According to the monthly newspaper Atlantic, the next round of negotiations could be held in Islamabad on 16 April. The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Sharif, indicated that the parties were working to resolve the outstanding issues between the United States and Iraq and that Turkish and Egyptian officials were also participating in the good offices。

Pollymarket’s latest data show that a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran will increase the probability by 6 to 23 per cent by April 30, and that agreement by May 31 will drop to 38 per cent。

As a result, oil prices moved out of the standard V shape, and the news of the blockade pushed Murban crude oil into US$ 106.49 in Asia-Pacific time, but the peace talks were expected to limit the increase, with the WTI tailboard falling to US$ 99.08 and falling back below $100. The fall in oil prices from the top is the starting point of the day ' s risk preference for recovery, when inflation is expected to relax, interest rate pressures are suspended and risk assets have rebounded。

THE DOLLAR IS EQUALLY HIGH AND FALLING. THE ICE DOLLAR INDEX FELL BY 0.24 PER CENT AND THE BLOOMBERG DOLLAR INDEX FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 3 MARCH. THE DOLLAR GOES SOFT ON BTC FOR SHORT-TERM WIND。

Bitcoin's spot has been very emotional for the short term

THE BITCOIN MARKET SHOWED A MARKED RISE IN KINETIC ENERGY, FROM 47.7 TO 72.4 AT PRICES, WITH CURRENT VALUES EXCEEDING HF BANDS 58.4 AND ABOVE PREVIOUS HEIGHTS, INDICATING THAT THE MARKET WAS EXPERIENCING STRONG UPWARD MOBILITY. THIS SENTIMENT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SPOT MARKET, WHERE THE SPOT CVD HAS RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM $34.4 MILLION TO $63.9 MILLION, EXCEEDING THE HIGH FREQUENCY BELT BY $33.4 MILLION, INDICATING RADICAL BUYING BEHAVIOUR IN THE SPOT MARKET, A HIGH LEVEL OF MOOD IN THE SHORT TERM AND INCREASING PRESSURE ON THE PURCHASE PLATE。

The volume of spot transactions rose from $5.3 billion to $6.3 billion, and the level of trade activity is increasing, but still below the $6.8 billion line of the HF belt, indicating a recovery in participation that has not yet reached its peak, with some funding support but not sufficient。

At the same time, futures markets have shown a higher level of speculative interest and leverage, with an increase of 7.2 per cent in the volume of open contracts. However, the market also showed signs of caution, with an increase in empty positions and a decrease of 198.6 per cent in multiple fund disbursements。

From a profit point of view, market pressures have been eased, unrealized losses have been reduced and the proportion of bitcoin profits in circulation has increased. The shift from loss to profit is indicative of a positive shift in investor sentiment. Overall, the indicators collectively show that markets are characterized by a strong sense of appreciation, increased investor participation and increased risk preferences, although there are also signs of caution and market stability。

Encryption Market Followup

BTC STANDS 74,000 YEARS LATER, AND THE CENTRAL QUESTION REMAINS, IS THAT REVERSE OR REBOUND

In terms of the silo structure, there is a large accumulation of empty positions between 72200 and $73,500. According to the analyst, the BTC short-term shock of $80,000 required two conditions, namely, the clearing of the vacant area to trigger cascade effects (which involved approximately $6 billion empty space) and the continued flow of ETF funds into the superimposed ceasefire。

At the same time, the Coinglass data show that the BTC multi-space ratio is 0.7, and the indicator shows an extreme reading gap. By historical trends, BTC prices tend to be near the base of stages, followed by a rapid rebound, whenever the ratio falls near or below 1. A similar pattern emerged at the beginning of 2024, in September 2024 and early 2025, when empty silos were heavily crowded and cleared in reverse by price increases, resulting in a emptiness and a sharp increase in the green column。

THE CURRENT SILO STRUCTURE IS SIMILAR TO THESE HISTORICAL NODES, WITH THE BTC STRETCHING BETWEEN 68,000 AND 7.3 MILLION DOLLARS, WITH EMPTY SILOS BUILDING UP CONTINUOUSLY, FUELLED BY NEGATIVE NEWS, SUCH AS BLOCKADE ORDERS AND THE BREAKDOWN OF NEGOTIATIONS, TO A LEVEL BELOW WHICH THE SPACE IS BEING PUSHED. ONCE A CLEAR CATALYST EMERGES, SUCH AS THE EXTENSION OF THE SECOND ROUND OF NEGOTIATED CEASEFIRES, PRICE BREAKTHROUGHS WILL FORCE INTENSIVE EMPTY POSITIONS TO BE REPLENISHED, RESULTING IN CASCADE LIQUIDATIONS AND MAGNIFYING INCREASES. THE CURRENT WAREHOUSE STRUCTURE PROVIDES FUEL FOR POTENTIAL RUNOFF。

THE SHORT-TERM CATALYST SEQUENCES, AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE US AND IRAN ON APRIL 16. IF THE CEASEFIRE IS EXTENDED OR A LONGER-TERM AGREEMENT FRAMEWORK IS REACHED, A FURTHER FALL IN OIL PRICES WILL EASE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND INDIRECTLY OPEN UP INTEREST-RATE SPACE FOR THE FED. THE SECOND IS THE MARCH PPI DATA RELEASED ON APRIL 14, IF LESS THAN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE INTEREST RATE REDUCTION NARRATIVE。